Global slow down...

[demer03]

Had the flu for three days. Sucked. Back in the flying germ tubes....life moves on.

[JBZ]

The death rate will continue to drop and more and more cases are diagnosed with the testing kits. I would not at all be surprised when this is all said and down if they don't find that thousands have had with little or mild symptoms. IMO this is so much hype over nothing more than the FLU

I hope you're right, but data suggests that this is more virulent than the flu, and lands more people in the ICU than flu. The real danger is running out of hospital beds.

Things don't look so good in China, South Korea, and Italy.

I do think it’s hyped up for sure, but it’s likely just as foolish to be dismissive.

This. It’s not time to panic. This isn’t airborne Ebola. But it is time to be concerned. I worry about my parents and especially my FIL who’s in an assisted living facility. By all accounts, this thing can do a number on older people and people with compromised immune systems.

Yes elderly and people with other underlying health issue need to be very careful.

COVID-19 is a variant of what we have previously seen as SARS and MERS. Its more transmissable than the flu and remains transmissable after the person has recovered, unlike a flu. Its dangerous to the elderly, respiratory or immune system compromised or those with advanced diabetes.

Avoid crowds, avoid unnecessary person-to-person contacts, wash your hands after contacts with other people or objects others have handled.

It is being overhyped, but to think its nothing to be concerned about is plain wrong.

Plus our healthcare system is designed to handle flu season and the hospitalization of those people who get the flu and have it become serious or life threatening. And we have a vaccine for the flu and also have a certain amount of natural immunity because it's around in various forms every year. So it isn't as contagious as this new virus. We have no natural immunity to this new coronavirus and there's no vaccine yet. If it ends up sending even twice the number of people to hospitals as is seen in a normal flu season, the hospitals could become overwhelmed. There are at least a few twitter accounts of this happening in Northern Italy (it is twitter, so take it for what it's worth).

I agree that we don't yet know the true mortality rate of this bug, and people who are buying up all the toilet paper/purell/alcohol wipes/soap and gargling with bleach are completely overreacting (and being pretty selfish, too). However, per the best current information it does have a significantly higher mortality rate than the flu (thank goodness it isn't SARS or MERS, which are real killers). I certainly hope the mortality rate will end up being much, much lower. That said, if I were in a vulnerable category or regularly in contact with people in a vulnerable category, I'd be avoiding large crowds and travel right now.

[River Rat]

45% of young people will ether not know they have it or will only feel a little sick with it. And think this is nothing then pass it on to there older parents or grandparents or older workers they work with or friends with. Then they get it and there out come won’t be good they mite pay with there lives due to some idiots not taking it seriously. Some grain of thought to think about. The weird thing is you can give this to people before you feel sick and after you feel your well for a while way different animal than the normal flu. Went to the Walmart in Bozeman the other day noticed the toilet paper was sold out so I guess this thing about shit paper hit Montana but Costco had plenty don’t know what shit paper has to do with this virus were you got to have a year supply of it.

[BBK357]

Had the flu for three days. Sucked. Back in the flying germ tubes....life moves on.

Damn moke. Sorry to hear. Must be scary being In the high risk category (70 yo+).
Too early for a RIP Moke post.


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[demer03]

Had the flu for three days. Sucked. Back in the flying germ tubes....life moves on.

Damn moke. Sorry to hear. Must be scary being In the high risk category (70 yo+).
Too early for a RIP Moke post.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quit adding 20 years to my age, ya damned kid!

[andrema]

My hope is that Zack has a cure in his couch cushion or in the back of his safe...

[BBK357]

Had the flu for three days. Sucked. Back in the flying germ tubes....life moves on.

Damn moke. Sorry to hear. Must be scary being In the high risk category (70 yo+).
Too early for a RIP Moke post.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quit adding 20 years to my age, ya damned kid!

Really though- my kids have had flu A and B this season. It sucks. And I just took my son to urgent care for step on Sunday. This viral season has been horrible.


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[BBK357]

My hope is that Zack has a cure in his couch cushion or in the back of his safe...

I heard that a mix of Gang Ji and Wu blood is guaranteed immunity to Wuhan carina.


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[HapaHapa]

I think the panic at the public health is the published 3%+ death rate....

The flu is 1.5 per 10,000
This is 300+ per 10,000

So if 31M people get the virus (estimate of people who get the flu in the US each year), That’s 1M deaths.

The death rate at this time is sku'd because as many as 80% of the cases are going unreported. As more accurate reporting becomes available the detah rate will go down, read the article further up in the thread it explains it well

Totally agree..... but the stock market is right now reacting to perception....

Dot com boom was a result of perception the busy was caused by a realization of reality.... same for many dramatic moves in the market.

Time to buy I bought UAL yesterday at $47. UAL beat it's numbers is well run and was at a high of $96. It will go back up

I bought Starbucks SBUX this morning at market price. Up 2 or 3 bucks by close. Haha I chickened out and only bought half the shares I had planned. Wish I’d had bigger cojones.

[gwells]

Really though- my kids have had flu A and B this season. It sucks. And I just took my son to urgent care for step on Sunday. This viral season has been horrible.

i'm on my second sinus infection of the winter. taking forever to clear up. back to the Dr tomorrow.

[namor]

With all those Chinese factories closed due to the virus, has this delayed Bill Yao's production schedule even further?

[caesarmascetti]

With all those Chinese factories closed due to the virus, has this delayed Bill Yao's production schedule even further?

Now thats funny !!!!

[toxicavenger]

With all those Chinese factories closed due to the virus, has this delayed Bill Yao's production schedule even further?

they just opened up last week.

[Selym]

Italian doctor describes virus nightmare

I finish by saying that I really don’t understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there’s no mask on sale anymore. We don’t have a lot of studies, but is panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?

[HapaHapa]

Italian doctor describes virus nightmare

I finish by saying that I really don’t understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there’s no mask on sale anymore. We don’t have a lot of studies, but is panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?

Tried to do some research and get a clear answer on what the Covid 19 does to you. Apart from medical speak I don’t understand, what I’ve gathered is that if a person gets badly sick they will end up with pneumonia in both lungs that will lead to scarring similar to asbestosis. Sounds like the scarring can heal though.

I’ve had pneumonia in both lungs. It felt like I had needles in my chest.

This comment made me nervous.
The coronavirus may be able to linger in the air for at least half an hour, last for days on some surfaces, and travel almost 15 feet, a new study has found

[caesarmascetti]

Italian doctor describes virus nightmare

I finish by saying that I really don’t understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there’s no mask on sale anymore. We don’t have a lot of studies, but is panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?

From Italy:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... d-19#img-1

The virus has killed 79 people in Italy, overwhelmingly aged between 63 and 95 with underlying serious illnesses.

The youngest patient to die was 55 and suffering from chronic disease. A 61-year-old doctor who was not known to have underlying health problems has also died.

Again just like everywhere else the huge majority of people that die are elderly/frail with underlying health issues. The young go asymptomatic or with very mild conditions, and the death rate will drop as more and more cases are diagnosed. Healthy individuals have very little to fear, elderly, frail people with compromised health need to be very careful (like many other diseases)

Panic, is the worst thing possible, clear, logical, cold calculated thought is what is needed. Look at the data that is available it's in this thread and on CDC website:

1) 80% of people that test positive have have very mild or asymptomatic conditions, in fact the CDC believes the majority haven't even reported it because the symptoms were so mild (this leads to an increase in the death rate because cases are not being reported)

2) otherwise healthy individualists who contract the illness are making full recoveries to the tune of 97% or more https://nypost.com/2020/03/03/coronavir ... perts-say/

3) the deaths are by overwhelming majority people with underlying health issues

4) children seem to be particularly resistant to this disease even those that test positive have very mild symptoms or are asymptomatic.

The media is hyping and stoking these fears, I have no idea why, the cynic in me says for more clicks, and ratings. If you take the information available the threat to otherwise healthy individuals is low.

FYI, just returned from a trade show where I probably interacted with 200 people over three days in my booth. I did not shake hands and had hand sanitizer. All reasonable precautions but I did not panic

an example of panic:

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states ... -to-divert

[dnslater]

Italian doctor describes virus nightmare

I finish by saying that I really don’t understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there’s no mask on sale anymore. We don’t have a lot of studies, but is panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?

From Italy:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... d-19#img-1

The virus has killed 79 people in Italy, overwhelmingly aged between 63 and 95 with underlying serious illnesses.

That story is a week or two old. As of this morning, 631 people have died in Italy, mostly in one small region. News of what is happening there in Hospitals are somewhat disturbing. A high % of older patients require ventilation, and there is a severe shortage. Dr's are treating the patients most likely to recover and leaving the more advanced cases without treatment.

https://www.businessinsider.com/italys- ... ung-2020-3

Italy has more hospital beds per capita than the U.S. does. They also have a healthier population with a higher life expectancy. I agree that the panic has gone too far in cases, but I also worry about the potential impact on our older adult population and healthcare system.

[Ryeguy]

Italian doctor describes virus nightmare

I finish by saying that I really don’t understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there’s no mask on sale anymore. We don’t have a lot of studies, but is panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?

Tried to do some research and get a clear answer on what the Covid 19 does to you. Apart from medical speak I don’t understand, what I’ve gathered is that if a person gets badly sick they will end up with pneumonia in both lungs that will lead to scarring similar to asbestosis. Sounds like the scarring can heal though.

I’ve had pneumonia in both lungs. It felt like I had needles in my chest.

This comment made me nervous.
The coronavirus may be able to linger in the air for at least half an hour, last for days on some surfaces, and travel almost 15 feet, a new study has found

From what I’ve read, the pneumonia risk is kind of a crap shoot with this virus. If the virus stays in the upper respiratory system, the patient will suffer only typical cold symptoms. If the virus makes its way deeper into the lungs, the body’s immune system response to killing infected cells can lead to pneumonia.

For example, that lawyer in New Rochelle, NY, is hospitalized in critical condition. His wife and family (also testing positive) just have slight coughs and are recovering at home. They did a TV interview the other day and appeared fine.

They suspect lifestyle choices such as smoking or generally having a weakened immune system can increase your chances of getting a worse case of this virus, but there are examples of young, non-drinkers / non-smokers getting hit hard too. Ultimately, I think it’s just a crap shoot.

As for Italy, from what I’ve read their death toll is relatively high mostly due to their aging population. Italy historically has been kind of Europe’s Florida with many retirees moving there. Plus, it is a “blue zone” where people tend to live longer due to a variety of factors.

With the general population skewed toward higher ages, it is reasonable to expect a higher mortality rate from this virus.

Plus, compared to Germany (zero deaths as of yesterday), Italy as a country had a more lax response to the virus outbreak. Germany immediately canceled or postponed everything while Italy waited.

That all said, the respirator / hospital equipment shortage there is something I fear happening here. This is why I think it is responsible to do what we can locally to limit exposure and virus transmission. While the reality is we are all likely to get this bug eventually, if we can control and slow the progression we can manage the case load on our hospitals. We want a slowly rising tide, not a total wave.

[dnslater]

Italy's population is older, but also healthier. Italy may have had a more lax response, but the U.S. may be closer to Italy's response than Germany's. We have our own areas with a population that skews old... you can see something like this ravaging Florida. Italy may rethink the whole "greet by kissing on the cheek" thing though.

https://threader.app/thread/1237142891077697538

[caesarmascetti]

Italian doctor describes virus nightmare

I finish by saying that I really don’t understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there’s no mask on sale anymore. We don’t have a lot of studies, but is panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?

From Italy:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... d-19#img-1

The virus has killed 79 people in Italy, overwhelmingly aged between 63 and 95 with underlying serious illnesses.

That story is a week or two old. As of this morning, 631 people have died in Italy, mostly in one small region. News of what is happening there in Hospitals are somewhat disturbing. A high % of older patients require ventilation, and there is a severe shortage. Dr's are treating the patients most likely to recover and leaving the more advanced cases without treatment.

https://www.businessinsider.com/italys- ... ung-2020-3

Italy has more hospital beds per capita than the U.S. does. They also have a healthier population with a higher life expectancy. I agree that the panic has gone too far in cases, but I also worry about the potential impact on our older adult population and healthcare system.

Yes, the story is one week old. The underlying facts remain:

1) If you are a healthy individual and not old, frail, or with underlying health conditions you have very little to fear from this virus
2) Older people need to be very careful
3) Children have very little to fear
4) The huge majority of people make full recoveries
5) The mortality rate will decline as more cases are diagnosed and it will most likely settle at 2% or even a hair under world wide when all is said and done

Once again IMO the hysteria is not warranted by the facts

[Ryeguy]

Italy's population is older, but also healthier. Italy may have had a more lax response, but the U.S. may be closer to Italy's response than Germany's. We have our own areas with a population that skews old... you can see something like this ravaging Florida. Italy may rethink the whole "greet by kissing on the cheek" thing though.

https://threader.app/thread/1237142891077697538

Germans by nature (and no offense intended to our German membership) tend to be rule followers. If the government says don’t do something, they (generally speaking) do not.

Americans are less so in this regard. One of the transmission points in my state was a resident physician. The guy returned from a trip and was told to self quarantine. He ignored the advisement and went to a party where he infected a couple other people. If our own clinical people won’t follow guidance, what are the chances our general population will?

Maybe this is why we are pumping fear into our society with the 24/7 virus coverage. If we can’t modify behavior with guidance, maybe we can with fear.

I agree. Florida and the Southwest are very much at risk due to population demographics.

Personally, I’m modifying my behavior a bit by not going to the gym (mine is nasty on a good day) and running outside more. I’m not traveling (work decision, not mine) and am going to avoid large crowds if possible. That’s probably the best anyone can do.

[HapaHapa]

It’s a good time to be a non-smoker. Does wonders for lung health.

[Brimstone]

I am in Atlanta for the MODEX show this week and it is dead. Coronavirus fear has everyone staying home. Pussies.

[River Rat]

What happened in that rest home for the elderly in the state of Washington is criminal. No test kits so you can test and remove the healthy ones in the beginning . Even the nurses and other workers who also got quarantined have now tested positive for it. They messed up with a weak response think 13 have died there. Montana only got 200 test kits for the whole state for this virus WTF. We were offered enough kits for the USA from WHO from Europe and we turned them down. Think of the life’s that could of been saved at that nursing home. One of them could of been your mother or dad or grandparents a crying shame. Think I will try to stay in my house till the end if I can do it before a rest home we old people get fucked. That rest home should get every one mad wait till it hits your family like your dad mom or grandparents then it will hit home. And it won’t be a joke any more. Use to think like this Alzheimer’s not going to hit my family then my dad gets it and it takes his life. This is how a lot think about this new virus.

[JBZ]

While the TP hoarders, bleach garglers, and sneeze alarmists are overreacting, I think it makes sense for communities to engage in social distancing at this point. That's what's going on in my town and state. Better to do it proactively than wait for an outbreak to take hold (like what happened in northern Italy). If hospitals get overwhelmed, people die needlessly. And while 1 or 2 percent doesn't sound like a lot, it's 10 to 20 times higher than the mortality rate for a routine flu season.

The best course of action is to reduce the number of infections or at least delay them so that our healthcare system can adequately respond. Social distancing can go a long way toward helping with that.