I think I’m done

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goaliechris
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I think I’m done

Post by goaliechris » Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:01 pm

This market is absolutely insane. Not even 2 years ago these were, what, $17k?? $43k for a grey dial AP 15400.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=824389


I know, it’s a well-known story but I keep getting surprised. Maybe time to sell a few and wait.


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BacoNoir
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by BacoNoir » Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:43 pm

I bought my AP RO 15400 about 8 years ago for $11.5k new. I wore it for five years, send it in for service and sold it for $23k 3 years ago. I miss it but at these prices, I’m out. I refuse to pay over msrp for any watch.
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BlueSky
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by BlueSky » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:03 pm

I really don't get the allure of the Royal Oak range, at any price.

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tattoo chef
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by tattoo chef » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:09 pm

I could come into 10 million tomorrow, and I still would still never spend $43grand on a watch.


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goaliechris
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by goaliechris » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:38 pm

tattoo chef wrote:I could come into 10 million tomorrow, and I still would still never spend $43grand on a watch.


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Exactly. As much as I love the RO, which if you have never seen one in person it’s hard not to be impressed, I am completely out. Can’t imagine this bubble won’t burst at some point, at least a little.


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BBK357
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by BBK357 » Sun Oct 17, 2021 2:33 pm

Not seeing how this equates to better sales for them


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93 Turbo
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by 93 Turbo » Sun Oct 17, 2021 3:17 pm

I'm hearing you, it's a even greater divide between grey & MSRP prices here in Aus...
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Zidane
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by Zidane » Sun Oct 17, 2021 3:54 pm

Yeah, it kind of sucks the fun out of it for me. I’ve debated on selling my collection many times but I know I’d never buy them back at the inflated prices so I’ve just decided to keep them at this point.

Anyone else in the same boat?

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BBK357
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by BBK357 » Sun Oct 17, 2021 4:44 pm

Zidane wrote:Yeah, it kind of sucks the fun out of it for me. I’ve debated on selling my collection many times but I know I’d never buy them back at the inflated prices so I’ve just decided to keep them at this point.

Anyone else in the same boat?
It took me too long to realize this. I’ll never get back soooo many because of the price hike.


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Torrid
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by Torrid » Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:06 pm

I never really got into huge prices, but as much as I love watches I really don't want to expand in this market. I don't feel comfortable spending big on a watch no matter how deep my pockets get.

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logan2z
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by logan2z » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:03 pm

Funny, I texted someone the other day about 15400 prices, I was completely shocked at what I saw on watchrecon.

I love my 15400 and would never sell it, but I have to admit that a $20+K profit does sound appealing :think:

I'm curious if anyone is actually getting these prices or if they're just dreaming.

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Re: I think I’m done

Post by matt.wu » Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:12 pm

logan2z wrote:Funny, I texted someone the other day about 15400 prices, I was completely shocked at what I saw on watchrecon.

I love my 15400 and would never sell it, but I have to admit that a $20+K profit does sound appealing :think:

I'm curious if anyone is actually getting these prices or if they're just dreaming.
I definitely know there are people buying in at these prices. So crazy.

I’m not opposed to paying that money for a watch, but I am not into paying that much for hype markup.
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blkgsl
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I think I’m done

Post by blkgsl » Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:26 pm

logan2z wrote:Funny, I texted someone the other day about 15400 prices, I was completely shocked at what I saw on watchrecon.

I love my 15400 and would never sell it, but I have to admit that a $20+K profit does sound appealing :think:

I'm curious if anyone is actually getting these prices or if they're just dreaming.
While a lot of it is dealers speculating to each other, there’s some actual retail use sales too. Like many things, people see early entrants and become greedy, and soon it is a self fulfilling prophecy. I remember times when Franck Muller and Panerai went over msrp. I may be wrong, and that’s okay; but I think there are too many speculators now in the popular brands, as well as lots of dealers telling their customers “watch, it’ll go up in a month.” I’m good with sitting out of trying the new releases from those brands and watching until I’m ready.

This thread made me realize this - I haven’t added a modern Rolex, AP, Patek, or RM since early 2019 - not because I don’t like some of the newer pieces, but I don’t care for them at the current fair market values. Instead, I’ve found appreciation for more Omegas, older Breitlings, and Nomos - and am just as happy.

All that said, if any of those brands released a watch I loved and just have to have, I’d have no issues paying secondary price for it - because that’s simply what it’ll take to own what I must have at the time I must have it. I don’t know if that watch will exist, but I am not fundamentally put off by the current watch market or manufacturers - I still enjoy the hobby.

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logan2z
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by logan2z » Sun Oct 17, 2021 10:33 pm

matt.wu wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:12 pm
logan2z wrote:Funny, I texted someone the other day about 15400 prices, I was completely shocked at what I saw on watchrecon.

I love my 15400 and would never sell it, but I have to admit that a $20+K profit does sound appealing :think:

I'm curious if anyone is actually getting these prices or if they're just dreaming.
I definitely know there are people buying in at these prices. So crazy.
I love the 15400 but I couldn't see spending over $40K for one. That is nuts.

JBZ
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by JBZ » Mon Oct 18, 2021 5:21 am

logan2z wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 10:33 pm
matt.wu wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:12 pm
logan2z wrote:Funny, I texted someone the other day about 15400 prices, I was completely shocked at what I saw on watchrecon.

I love my 15400 and would never sell it, but I have to admit that a $20+K profit does sound appealing :think:

I'm curious if anyone is actually getting these prices or if they're just dreaming.
I definitely know there are people buying in at these prices. So crazy.
I love the 15400 but I couldn't see spending over $40K for one. That is nuts.
You should check out the prices on 15202's on the secondary market right now. Approaching stainless Nautilus prices. It's crazy. There are precious metal Pateks with complications that you can buy for less. A lot less.
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logan2z
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by logan2z » Mon Oct 18, 2021 6:26 am

JBZ wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 5:21 am
logan2z wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 10:33 pm
matt.wu wrote:
Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:12 pm
logan2z wrote:Funny, I texted someone the other day about 15400 prices, I was completely shocked at what I saw on watchrecon.

I love my 15400 and would never sell it, but I have to admit that a $20+K profit does sound appealing :think:

I'm curious if anyone is actually getting these prices or if they're just dreaming.
I definitely know there are people buying in at these prices. So crazy.
I love the 15400 but I couldn't see spending over $40K for one. That is nuts.
You should check out the prices on 15202's on the secondary market right now. Approaching stainless Nautilus prices. It's crazy. There are precious metal Pateks with complications that you can buy for less. A lot less.
I thought the 15202 was overpriced even before this current bubble as it was always very limited in supply. But six figures for a fairly basic stainless steel watch is bonkers. Lucky for me it's one of my least favorite ROs. It feels much too dainty for what is supposed to be a sports watch, IMHO.

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gwells
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Re: I think I’m done

Post by gwells » Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:55 am

i got into this game too late (2012). and the first few years were mostly spent looking at micros (other than the aqua terra i got for my 50th in 2013). wish i'd started 10 years sooner.

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