State of the Market

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goaliechris
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State of the Market

Post by goaliechris » Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:28 am

I have been itching to buy a watch lately. and I have always had several grails that were a little out reach or the timing wasn’t right. At 2018 prices, I would be good to go to finally get that 15400 (now 15500) or something like it. Now in 2021-2? No f’in chance. I know it’s been discussed ad nauseum but this market is absolutely insane for certain pieces. I am assuming at some point it cannot continue but will prices ever backslide? Or will prices just hold on Rolex and AP(as examples)?


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hoppyjr
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Re: State of the Market

Post by hoppyjr » Mon Dec 20, 2021 9:09 am

That’s the big question for sure.

I’ve seriously considered selling the OP or 14060 to take advantage of the hot market, but I haven’t listed yet because I worry about leaving money on the table.

It’s crazy.

ncstate1201
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Re: State of the Market

Post by ncstate1201 » Mon Dec 20, 2021 9:21 am

hoppyjr wrote:That’s the big question for sure.

I’ve seriously considered selling the OP or 14060 to take advantage of the hot market, but I haven’t listed yet because I worry about leaving money on the table.

It’s crazy.
Or we all have that pain point that is not just leaving money on the table but when you part with one you miss and have to buy it back at a premium

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Re: State of the Market

Post by hoppyjr » Mon Dec 20, 2021 9:40 am

ncstate1201 wrote:
hoppyjr wrote:That’s the big question for sure.

I’ve seriously considered selling the OP or 14060 to take advantage of the hot market, but I haven’t listed yet because I worry about leaving money on the table.

It’s crazy.
Or we all have that pain point that is not just leaving money on the table but when you part with one you miss and have to buy it back at a premium

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Also true

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sierra11b
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Re: State of the Market

Post by sierra11b » Mon Dec 20, 2021 9:57 am

hoppyjr wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 9:40 am
ncstate1201 wrote:
hoppyjr wrote:That’s the big question for sure.

I’ve seriously considered selling the OP or 14060 to take advantage of the hot market, but I haven’t listed yet because I worry about leaving money on the table.

It’s crazy.
Or we all have that pain point that is not just leaving money on the table but when you part with one you miss and have to buy it back at a premium

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Also true
Pretty much. Went from multiple Rolex to rocking an alpinist in a couple years. Market is a bitch

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Chocodove
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Re: State of the Market

Post by Chocodove » Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:00 am

Turquoise OP41's are now $35k grey. I think that tells you all you need to know.
- Todd

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Re: State of the Market

Post by JBZ » Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:32 am

Unless/until the Rolex/AP/PP supply chain loosens up and ADs and boutiques have stock to sell, I don't see the gray market prices on the new pieces going down at all.

What blows me away when it comes to Rolex are the prices on all of the five digit models (and even some older six digit models). Given the number out there, they're commanding prices that just seem way too high. A good condition 16610 is the in the 10k - 11k range, and a good condition 16710 is 14k - 15k. It's just nuts when I think that I bought my first Sub about 10 years ago for less than 3k (which included the service that the seller told me would be needed).

I have two five digit Explorer II's. It just doesn't make any sense to me to sell them right now, but I'm keeping my eyes on the market.

But my guess is that we won't see the prices come down on those, at least not significantly. They may slow or stagnate, but not come down. If I were just getting into watches now, Rolex wouldn't even be on the radar screen.
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Ryeguy
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Re: State of the Market

Post by Ryeguy » Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:09 am

I'm not certain purchasing a luxury good right now makes a lot of sense even above and beyond the Rolex supply restrictions. It seems we are at a crossroads of general supply restrictions raising prices and combined with our dollar weakening due to inflation.

To sell now is an interesting question. I guess the answer would depend upon whether I looked at it as an investment or as an object that brought be joy.

While I don't own a Rolex, I do own a boat on a slip. Boats are nearly as impossible to get as Rolex, and slips by me are simply not available (200+ person waiting list at my marina). I got unsolicited offers routinely last summer (some for crazy $$$) which never ever happened in the past.

I 'm keeping the boat because the profit I earned in selling the boat now would not replace the enjoyment I get out of using it. Plus, knowing what I know about the boat industry, even if I decided to get another boat with my new profits, I probably couldn't get one for a few years. Life is too short to lose a few summers of enjoyment for a few thousand $$$.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by ncstate1201 » Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:14 am

Chocodove wrote:Turquoise OP41's are now $35k grey. I think that tells you all you need to know.
Lol what...haven't looked... that is silly

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Re: State of the Market

Post by ncstate1201 » Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:18 am

JBZ wrote:Unless/until the Rolex/AP/PP supply chain loosens up and ADs and boutiques have stock to sell, I don't see the gray market prices on the new pieces going down at all.

What blows me away when it comes to Rolex are the prices on all of the five digit models (and even some older six digit models). Given the number out there, they're commanding prices that just seem way too high. A good condition 16610 is the in the 10k - 11k range, and a good condition 16710 is 14k - 15k. It's just nuts when I think that I bought my first Sub about 10 years ago for less than 3k (which included the service that the seller told me would be needed).

I have two five digit Explorer II's. It just doesn't make any sense to me to sell them right now, but I'm keeping my eyes on the market.

But my guess is that we won't see the prices come down on those, at least not significantly. They may slow or stagnate, but not come down. If I were just getting into watches now, Rolex wouldn't even be on the radar screen.
I kinda agree with this... to take the other side though a 16610 or even a 16600 seems like a value in today's market next to a brand new Rolex that is sold at a profit through a gray dealer... or even that turquoise op41 at 35k...



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Re: State of the Market

Post by JBZ » Mon Dec 20, 2021 12:38 pm

ncstate1201 wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:18 am
JBZ wrote:Unless/until the Rolex/AP/PP supply chain loosens up and ADs and boutiques have stock to sell, I don't see the gray market prices on the new pieces going down at all.

What blows me away when it comes to Rolex are the prices on all of the five digit models (and even some older six digit models). Given the number out there, they're commanding prices that just seem way too high. A good condition 16610 is the in the 10k - 11k range, and a good condition 16710 is 14k - 15k. It's just nuts when I think that I bought my first Sub about 10 years ago for less than 3k (which included the service that the seller told me would be needed).

I have two five digit Explorer II's. It just doesn't make any sense to me to sell them right now, but I'm keeping my eyes on the market.

But my guess is that we won't see the prices come down on those, at least not significantly. They may slow or stagnate, but not come down. If I were just getting into watches now, Rolex wouldn't even be on the radar screen.
I kinda agree with this... to take the other side though a 16610 or even a 16600 seems like a value in today's market next to a brand new Rolex that is sold at a profit through a gray dealer... or even that turquoise op41 at 35k...



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Absolutely. It's all relative. It's just hard for me to forget that five or six years ago I bought a pristine, complete set 16600 for $5,000.
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Re: State of the Market

Post by aztecknight » Mon Dec 20, 2021 12:50 pm

ncstate1201 wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:14 am
Chocodove wrote:Turquoise OP41's are now $35k grey. I think that tells you all you need to know.
Lol what...haven't looked... that is silly

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I'll let mine go for a cheap 32k if anyone wants it.
PXL_20211015_175443805.jpg
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Re: State of the Market

Post by JP Chestnut » Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:11 pm

JBZ wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:32 am
Unless/until the Rolex/AP/PP supply chain loosens up and ADs and boutiques have stock to sell, I don't see the gray market prices on the new pieces going down at all.
One of China's largest real-estate development firms is going through a slow motion self destruction that could trigger a worldwide financial meltdown: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58579833

There is a whole lot of shit besides production numbers that could tank current prices. I'm sitting on a Paul Newman Daytona's worth of cash and modern luxury watches are the absolute last thing that I'm thinking about buying.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by hoppyjr » Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:43 pm

Chocodove wrote:Turquoise OP41's are now $35k grey. I think that tells you all you need to know.
I paid a pretty large premium for my OP41 blue, but could certainly make money if I let it go.

The turquoise OP seems cool and was the one I wanted, but the blue is absolutely gorgeous and much more versatile, so I’m glad it worked out as it did.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by JBZ » Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:44 pm

JP Chestnut wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:11 pm
JBZ wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:32 am
Unless/until the Rolex/AP/PP supply chain loosens up and ADs and boutiques have stock to sell, I don't see the gray market prices on the new pieces going down at all.
One of China's largest real-estate development firms is going through a slow motion self destruction that could trigger a worldwide financial meltdown: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58579833

There is a whole lot of shit besides production numbers that could tank current prices. I'm sitting on a Paul Newman Daytona's worth of cash and modern luxury watches are the absolute last thing that I'm thinking about buying.
That's fair - lots of crap could happen to the economy. Luxury goods are weird, though. They don't always follow economic trends. Rich people always seem to have enough money to spend on luxuries.

OTOH, they make for horrible investments IMHO, if for no other reason than no one ever intended them to be investments. My feeling is that if you happen to buy a watch that increases in value, be happy, but don't use that as an investment strategy. Not everyone agrees obviously, given the amount of hype surrounding certain pieces.
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Re: State of the Market

Post by logan2z » Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:29 pm

goaliechris wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:28 am
At 2018 prices, I would be good to go to finally get that 15400 (now 15500) or something like it. Now in 2021-2? No f’in chance.
I was fortunate enough to buy my 15400 before the prices went absolutely insane, and it was expensive even at MSRP at that time.

It's a terrific watch and I have zero regrets about purchasing it, but there's no way I'd pay upwards of $40K for one. It is, after all, just a simple three-hand/date, stainless steel watch - albeit one that is iconic and nice looking (IMHO)

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Re: State of the Market

Post by ncstate1201 » Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:39 pm

logan2z wrote:
goaliechris wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:28 am
At 2018 prices, I would be good to go to finally get that 15400 (now 15500) or something like it. Now in 2021-2? No f’in chance.
I was fortunate enough to buy my 15400 before the prices went absolutely insane, and it was expensive even at MSRP at that time.

It's a terrific watch and I have zero regrets about purchasing it, but there's no way I'd pay upwards of $40K for one. It is, after all, just a simple three-hand/date, stainless steel watch - albeit one that is iconic and nice looking (IMHO)
Yeah but now you have a watch that is worth that much. Does it change how often you wear it? Do you baby it?

I have gone through that before with various watches at different times in life. I had a mint blue snowflake I regret selling but at the time my kids were super young, watches seemed to cost less back then and I thought no way I would wear such a nice example around them. I have not hit 40k in value on any one watch, but I think I would have a hard time strapping that one on and wearing it.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by logan2z » Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:49 pm

ncstate1201 wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:39 pm
logan2z wrote:
goaliechris wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:28 am
At 2018 prices, I would be good to go to finally get that 15400 (now 15500) or something like it. Now in 2021-2? No f’in chance.
I was fortunate enough to buy my 15400 before the prices went absolutely insane, and it was expensive even at MSRP at that time.

It's a terrific watch and I have zero regrets about purchasing it, but there's no way I'd pay upwards of $40K for one. It is, after all, just a simple three-hand/date, stainless steel watch - albeit one that is iconic and nice looking (IMHO)
Yeah but now you have a watch that is worth that much. Does it change how often you wear it? Do you baby it?
Honestly, I babied it before it spiked in value :) Mostly because we have a very active, young dog that likes to jump on me and I'm concerned she'll damage it. But I'm pretty anal about these things in general anyway, so the price increase of the AP hasn't really changed my approach to wearing it.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by logan2z » Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:10 pm

I read something that suggested the VC Overseas has started to increase in value as people look to brands other than Rolex, PP, and AP for their luxury watch fix. But if the Overseas hasn't yet seen the price increases of the Royal Oak and can actually be purchased from an AD by mere mortals, I'd seriously consider that as an alternative. Beautiful watches from one of The Big Three manufacturers.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by JP Chestnut » Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:39 pm

logan2z wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:10 pm
I read something that suggested the VC Overseas has started to increase in value as people look to brands other than Rolex, PP, and AP for their luxury watch fix. But if the Overseas hasn't yet seen the price increases of the Royal Oak and can actually be purchased from an AD by mere mortals, I'd seriously consider that as an alternative. Beautiful watches from one of The Big Three manufacturers.

Image
The new Lange sports watch is another alternative, but I think that one is super hard to get as well.

It’s an interesting watch:
https://www.alange-soehne.com/en/odysseus

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Re: State of the Market

Post by hoppyjr » Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:53 pm

logan2z wrote:I read something that suggested the VC Overseas has started to increase in value as people look to brands other than Rolex, PP, and AP for their luxury watch fix. But if the Overseas hasn't yet seen the price increases of the Royal Oak and can actually be purchased from an AD by mere mortals, I'd seriously consider that as an alternative. Beautiful watches from one of The Big Three manufacturers.

Image
I’ve always loved those.

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goaliechris
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Re: State of the Market

Post by goaliechris » Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:31 pm

VC is starting to take off. Their new, limited edition Everest is something I would sell a lot for, particularly the Dual Time. I like my chrono:

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Re: State of the Market

Post by logan2z » Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:05 am

goaliechris wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:31 pm
VC is starting to take off. Their new, limited edition Everest is something I would sell a lot for, particularly the Dual Time. I like my chrono:

Image
That generation was very cool. I love the current generation chronos as well...

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Re: State of the Market

Post by ncstate1201 » Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:21 am

I like them but too big lug to lug for me...particularly on bracelet. Guess I should be glad I can't pull that off.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by dnslater » Tue Dec 21, 2021 3:39 am

JBZ wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:44 pm

OTOH, they make for horrible investments IMHO, if for no other reason than no one ever intended them to be investments. My feeling is that if you happen to buy a watch that increases in value, be happy, but don't use that as an investment strategy. Not everyone agrees obviously, given the amount of hype surrounding certain pieces.
This

From time to time you get lucky and a watch appreciates... but very rarely do they ever out perform investments into a nice index fund.... especially when you consider hidden costs like taxes, paypal fees, service fees, insurance and your wife's scorn. :grin:

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